Vietnam economic expansion could reach 6.9%: economic institute

By Bach Quang
Sat, July 16, 2022 | 9:02 am GMT+7
The Cat Linh-Ha Dong train line is in service in Hanoi. Photo by TheInvestor/Trong Hieu.

The Cat Linh-Ha Dong train line is in service in Hanoi. Photo by TheInvestor/Trong Hieu.

Vietnam’s GDP this year could grow 6.9% in the best scenario, with inflation contained at 3.7%, an export expansion of 16.3% year-on-year, and a trade surplus of $2.7 billion, according to CIEM, a leading Vietnamese economic research institute.

A GDP growth of 6.9% is close to the government’s target of 7% that Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung mentioned in early July. Previously, the government had set the target at 6-6.5%.

The Central Institute for Economic Management's (CIEM) base scenario put economic expansion at 6.7%, inflation 4%, export growth 15.8%, and trade surplus $1.2 billion.

Factors that would drive these figures include control of new Covid-19 variants, good progress in the execution of the government’s socio-economic development and recovery program, and macroeconomic stability to stablize market sentiment and tame inflation expectations.

Divesifying the markets to cash in on free trade agreements and handle risks derived from trade and technology disputes among economic powerhouses, and the trend of depreciation of currencies in regional countries are also highlighed as risks.

CIEM analysts said while Vietnam has experience in handling complicated pandemic fallouts and global economic recession risks, inflationary pressures are more visible.

"The top recommendation is control of inflation," said Nguyen Anh Duong, CIEM's head of research told a forum on Friday.

Tran Hong Minh, head of the institute, argued that the country should continue focusing on solidifying macroeconomic fundamentals and reforming its market economy institutions to be more friendly to innovations and green development.

Standard Chartered Bank last week put its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam this year at 6.7% and 7.0% for 2023. The country’s inflation in 2022 and 2023 is predicted at 4.2% and 5.5% respectively.

Tim Leelahaphan, an economist for Thailand and Vietnam at the bank, commented that the recovery may accelerate markedly in the second half, particularly as tourism reopens after a two-year closure, but rising global oil prices may have negative impacts on the economy.

Previously, HSBC had revised up Vietnam’s GDP prediction for 2022 from 6.6% to 6.9%, while International Monetary Fund put its estimation at 6%. The World Bank and the IMF expect Vietnam’s 2022 inflation to be contained at a maximum of 4%, which is the State Bank of Vietnam's target.

Vietnam's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.96% in the second quarter and 2.44% in the first half year-on-year, relatively low compared to the same periods in pre-pandemic years, official data shows.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Central Vietnam province plans to build $2.4 bln LNG power plant from 2031

Central Vietnam province plans to build $2.4 bln LNG power plant from 2031

The 4,800-MW Chan May LNG power plant, with an investment of $2.4 billion, can be deployed in 2031-2035, according to Thua Thien Hue authorities.

Energy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:41 pm GMT+7

Indonesia, France step up cooperation in economy, defence

Indonesia, France step up cooperation in economy, defence

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto discussed economic and defence cooperation during a bilateral meeting on Tuesday with French President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Antara reported.

Southeast Asia - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:25 pm GMT+7

Thai economy to maintain upward momentum in 2025

Thai economy to maintain upward momentum in 2025

The National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand (NESDC) expects the Thai economy to sustain its upward momentum in 2025 with a growth of 2.3-3.3% despite growing risks.

Southeast Asia - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:24 pm GMT+7

Former parliament chairman Vuong Dinh Hue warned for violations

Former parliament chairman Vuong Dinh Hue warned for violations

The Politburo, Vietnam's supreme decision making body, on Wednesday issued warnings to Vuong Dinh Hue, former Chairman of the National Assembly, and Nguyen Van The, former Minister of Transport, for violations while on duties.

Politics - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:10 pm GMT+7

Sumitomo insists on building LNG power plant in central Vietnam

Sumitomo insists on building LNG power plant in central Vietnam

Japanese trading house Sumitomo has been pushing for a liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fed power plant investment in Vietnam’s central province of Khanh Hoa.

Energy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 8:53 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s Vinhomes fulfils 67% of record buyback plan

Vietnam’s Vinhomes fulfils 67% of record buyback plan

Vinhomes, the housing development arm of conglomerate Vingroup, has purchased back 246.98 million shares, meeting 66.75% of the plan and accounting for 5.7% of the outstanding volume.

Finance - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 8:43 pm GMT+7

Vietnam high-speed railway should run beyond Hanoi, HCMC on either side: lawmakers

Vietnam high-speed railway should run beyond Hanoi, HCMC on either side: lawmakers

Vietnam’s mega North-South high-speed railway project should be redesigned and extended beyond Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City as currently planned, several lawmakers have suggested.

Infrastructure - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 6:11 pm GMT+7

Vietnam-Malaysia relationship upgraded to comprehensive strategic partnership

Vietnam-Malaysia relationship upgraded to comprehensive strategic partnership

Vietnam and Malaysia have upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest level in the former’s diplomatic hierarchy.

Politics - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 5:21 pm GMT+7

Petrovietnam units sign LNG supply deal for trial run of Vietnam’s first LNG power plants

Petrovietnam units sign LNG supply deal for trial run of Vietnam’s first LNG power plants

PV Power and PV Gas, two units of state-owned Petrovietnam, have signed an LNG supply deal for trial operation of Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4, Vietnam’s first LNG-to-power plants.

Energy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 4:40 pm GMT+7

Sufficient first phase funds ensured for Vietnam’s new mega airport: transport minister

Sufficient first phase funds ensured for Vietnam’s new mega airport: transport minister

Minister of Transport Nguyen Van Thang affirmed Wednesday that funding would be secured for building the Long Thanh International Airport, set to become Vietnam’s biggest.

Infrastructure - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 3:53 pm GMT+7

Bamboo Capital wins kudos for transparent reports, good governance

Bamboo Capital wins kudos for transparent reports, good governance

Vietnamese private conglomerate Bamboo Capital Group has been honored as a Top 20 business with the Best Annual Report and the Best AGM Organization at the 2024 Vietnam Listed Company Awards (VLCA).

Bamboo Capital - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 3:37 pm GMT+7

VAFIE to organize workshop on amendments to horse racing, football betting rules

VAFIE to organize workshop on amendments to horse racing, football betting rules

The Vietnam’s Association of Foreign Invested Enterprises (VAFIE) and The Investor will organize a workshop on suggestions to amend the government’s Decree 06 on horse racing, greyhound racing and international football betting services.

Economy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 2:38 pm GMT+7

Vietnam Politburo okays international, regional financial centers in HCMC, Danang

Vietnam Politburo okays international, regional financial centers in HCMC, Danang

Vietnam’s highest decision-making body, the Politburo, has greenlighted the establishment of an international financial center in Ho Chi Minh City and a regional financial center in the central city of Danang.

Economy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 1:50 pm GMT+7

Singapore's Platinum Victory seeks to gain veto at Vietnam’s REE

Singapore's Platinum Victory seeks to gain veto at Vietnam’s REE

Singaporean fund Platinum Victory Pte. Ltd. has registered to buy more shares of Ho Chi Minh City-based utility firm Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation (REE) to achieve the vetoing power in the latter.

Finance - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 11:29 am GMT+7

Posco keen on investing in Vietnam's $2.2 bln LNG power project

Posco keen on investing in Vietnam's $2.2 bln LNG power project

South Korea’s steelmaker Posco is eyeing to invest in the $2.2 billion Quynh Lap LNG-fired power plant project in Vietnam’s central province of Nghe An.

Energy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:42 am GMT+7

Vietnam firm Hoa Lam to build $212 mln Aeon Mall in Mekong Delta

Vietnam firm Hoa Lam to build $212 mln Aeon Mall in Mekong Delta

The Mekong Delta city of Can Tho has accepted a subsidiary of private multi-sector Hoa Lam Group as the investor of the Aeon Mall Can Tho commerce and service center.

Industries - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:31 am GMT+7