Vietnam fisheries sector to enjoy H2 export bonanza

Vietnam’s fisheries sector is set to enjoy strong year-on-year export growth in the second half of this year, buoyed by higher demand during the year-end festive season, say experts.

In H1, Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached $920 million, up 5% year-on-year. Citing data compiled by AgroMonitor, securities firm Vietcap estimates the Q2 figure for pangasius exports at $502 million on an expected 22% increase in output and a 10% decrease in average export prices.

In Q2/2024, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the U.S. surged by 40% year-on-year, while exports to China rose by 23%. Shipments to the European market edged up 5%.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) expects pangasius exports to see robust growth, as food traders in these key markets are increasing their reserves ahead of the festive season in late Q3 and Q4.

Meanwhile, Q2 shrimp exports dropped 1% year-on-year. The U.S., the EU, China and Japan remain the largest buyers of Vietnam’s white-leg and black tiger shrimp, making up 67% and 59% of total export value in 2023 and H1/2024, respectively.

Among the major shrimp export markets, the EU witnessed the strongest growth in H1 with a 31% year-on-year rise, followed by China, up 17%. Meanwhile, exports to the U.S. stayed almost flat at 1%, while Japan’s intake decreased by 3%.

Vietcap analysts said the U.S. market was one with high potential for Vietnamese seafood in H2, citing a projected recovery of U.S. consumer spending during this period.

However, consumers’ concerns about short-term marcoeconomic instability may hinder Vietnamese seafood exporters from achieving a significant growth in average selling prices compared to the same period the previous year, they cautioned.

The Vietcap analysts also anticipate a growth in fisheries exports on a projected sharp increase in inventory replenishment by U.S. food and beverage (F&B) and grocery stores in H2.

They believe that continued recovery in demand, coupled with the upcoming peak season for seafood, will drive stockpiling by food stores.

The analysts also expect demand for pangasius will be stronger than for shrimp in the Chinese market, noting steady declines in consumer confidence and prices in China since February.

Meanwhile, VASEP anticipates increased competition in shrimp exports as Ecuador, India and Indonesia boost shipments to China due to high anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties imposed by the U.S. This heightened competition may exert pressure on export prices of Vietnamese shrimp.

Conversely, the cautious spending behavior of Chinese consumers could benefit Vietnamese pangasius exporters, as prices of this fish are lower than those of whitefish species like tilapia and carp in China.

Besides, the EU’s stringent controls on seafood products from Russia and China may also bode well for Vietnam’s seafood exports to the bloc.

The EU’s move to remove Russian seafood products from the duty-free regime for the 2024-2026 period presents potential long-term opportunities for Vietnam to increase its export volume of seafood, including shrimp and pangasius, to the EU market.

Besides, the Japanese market is expected to recover more strongly in H2. VASEP analysts have noted that Vietnamese shrimp producers hold a competitive advantage and strong market position over their foreign rivals in exporting high-quality processed shrimp to Japan.