Vietnam forecast to become world’s second-largest rice exporter this year

Vietnam’s rice exports are projected to reach at least 8 million tons in 2025, positioning the country as the world’s second-largest exporter for the first time, according to Do Ha Nam, chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).

Vietnam’s average export price for rice currently stands at $514 per ton. Although this is lower than in recent years, it remains higher than that of other suppliers, he said, noting that the global rice market is experiencing oversupply.

Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter for many years, is facing significant challenges, with volumes down 30% year-on-year. In contrast, Vietnam’s rice exports have continued to grow, reaching over 5.5 million tons to date.

“Vietnam's rice supply still falls short of demand because we have established our own markets with varieties such as DT, OM, and especially ST,” Nam said, adding that shipments to African countries surpassed 1 million tons as of the end of June.

Importers from the region continue to place orders, whereas in previous years, purchases had typically stopped by this time, he noted.

The Indian government’s allocation of up to 20 million tons of rice under its new open market sale scheme, announced on July 31, has put downward pressure on the global market, forcing suppliers to reduce prices to remain competitive. Thai exporters cut their offer prices by $10-15 compared to the previous week, while Pakistan and India also lowered prices.

However, at the start of this week, Vietnam’s export rice prices bucked the global trend, rising by an average of $10 per ton compared to the end of last week. Fragrant rice varieties were quoted at $510-517 per ton.

Businesses attributed the increase to a rush by Philippine importers to secure supplies before a 60-day suspension of imports starting September 1. Demand from the Philippines is expected to remain strong in the final stretch before the suspension.

Pham Thai Binh, chairman of the board of directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture JSC, said that since late 2024, global supply has been steadily rising, causing rice prices, both globally and in Vietnam, to fall. With the latest developments from India, prices are likely to decline further in the medium term and may not return to previous highs soon.

“In the long term, it’s uncertain because agriculture is heavily dependent on weather, and climate change is making it increasingly unpredictable,” he added.

Nam noted that Vietnam enjoys a strong foothold in major consumption markets such as the Philippines, Africa, and China.

To ensure the sustainable development of the rice sector, the VFA chairman proposed boosting exports to high-value and stable markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union, noting that government-level engagement would be necessary to penetrate these markets.

His confidence stems from the fact that Vietnam is developing one million hectares of high-quality, low-carbon rice in the Mekong Delta, he said.

Bui Ba Bong, chairman of the Vietnam Rice Industry Association (VIETRISA), highlighted that the one-million-hectare project is being implemented effectively. It aims to access premium export markets by ensuring high product quality while keeping production costs low, thereby increasing profits for both enterprises and farmers.

Vietnam has outranked Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, Thai PBS reported on August 3, citing the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

The association noted that from January to June, India exported 11.68 million tons of rice, an increase of 36.5% year-on-year, followed by Vietnam’s 4.72 million tons, up 3.6%.

Thailand saw 3.73 million tons exported, down 27.3%; Pakistan’s 2.76 million tons, down 20.2%; and the U.S.'s 1.4 million tons, down 23.5%.