Vietnam galvanized steel makers Nam Kim, Hoa Sen, Ton Dong A to be most affected by 25% U.S tariffs

Vietnamese galvanized steel companies like Nam Kim Steel, Hoa Sen Group and Ton Dong A will be the most impacted by the U.S. imposition of 25% tariff due to their large proportion of exports to the American country.

U.S. President Donald Trump on early Tuesday (Hanoi time) signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported aluminum and steel with no exceptions. The new tariff will take effect on March 4.

Do Ngoc Hung, commercial counselor and head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the U.S., commented that the tariff will negatively impact countries exporting these products to the U.S.

Since 2018, many countries and territories have replaced China in exporting these products to the U.S., such as Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil. About 12-15% of the U.S's demand for steel is met by imports, while the figure for aluminum is 40-45%.

U.S. customs statistics show that in 2024, Vietnam exported approximately $983 million of steel and steel products to the U.S., up nearly 159% compared to 2023. Aluminum exports reached $479 million, a 9.5% year-on-year increase.

Currently, Vietnam’s aluminum and steel products are subject to tariffs of 10% and 25%, respectively, under Section 232, which the U.S. has applied since 2018 to most countries.

Vietnam’s aluminum and steel products are frequently subject to trade defense investigations. For steel, the U.S. has conducted more than 34 investigations, accounting for over 50% of the total trade defense cases involving Vietnam. For aluminum, there have been two cases.

Hung noted that despite the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on all imports, Vietnam's steel products still have the opportunity to continue exporting, as the U.S. manufacturers' capacity cannot meet all demand. But the profit margins of companies will decrease.

Difficulties in exporting to the U.S. will also affect the supply chain, as countries look for alternative markets, including Vietnam. Many steel companies are returning to the domestic market, making countries increase protective measures, which also impacts steel exporters like Vietnam.

The tariff is expected to contribute to the rising inflation in the U.S., since steel and aluminum are basic goods with high demand. Therefore, with Vietnam's advantage in competitive pricing and good quality, it can complement the U.S. economy, helping to reduce inflation.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the U.S. advises Vietnamese steel companies to assess the situation and develop appropriate strategies, expand exports to markets with which Vietnam signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), and avoid dependence on a single market. They should also comply with U.S. regulations on origin and always be prepared to participate fully in the U.S. investigation process related to trade defense cases.

Impact on steel stocks

Tran Hoang Son, market strategy director at VPBank Securities, noted that stocks possibly affected include HPG of giant Hoa Phat, NKG of Nam Kim Steel, HSG of Hoa Sen Group, and GDA of Ton Dong A Corp.

Prior to 2020, domestic sales accounted for up to 70% of revenue at Ton Dong A. However, as the domestic market stagnated and gradually shrank, the company actively increased exports. In 2021, export revenue surged dramatically, even surpassing domestic sales to account for over 51% of the total. Europe and the U.S. were key markets, making up 93% of its export revenue.

In recent years, Ton Dong A has continuously expanded its export markets, with products now reaching over 50 countries and territories. The company aims to expand further, particularly targeting demanding markets like the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

Its report shows that in the first 10 months of 2024, total sales reached 743,470 tons, up 18.6% compared to the same period in 2023. Of which, exports accounted for 448,943 tons, up 26%, and contributed 60% of total sales, with strong growth in developed markets.

The company expects the recovery of the construction industry in Vietnam in 2025 will be a key driver of galvanized steel demand. However, the global market still faces uncertainties such as a slowdown in China’s real estate sector and an oversupply of steel, along with short-term fluctuations due to China’s domestic economic stimulus measures.

On the international market, geopolitical tensions and economic instability continue to affect growth. However, anti-dumping policies in the U.S. and Europe are providing a competitive advantage to producers like Ton Dong A.

Similarly, before 2020, the revenue split of Nam Kim Steel was 40.5% from exports and 59.5% from domestic sales. However, from 2021 onward, exports surged and became the primary growth driver.

In 2024, the company recorded VND20.66 trillion ($808.93 million) in revenue, up 12.3% year-on-year. While domestic sales stagnated at VND7.25 trillion, exports rose 22% to VND13.41 trillion, contributing 64.9%. Total consumption exceeded 1 million tons, an 11.6% increase over 2023.

In the face of increasing trade protectionism, steel companies have aimed to expand their export markets to over 65 countries and territories. The EU and North America are key markets, while ASEAN is a traditional market and Central America is a new one.

According to Vietnam Customs, steel companies intensified exports to the U.S. and EU in 2024. Ton Dong A shipped 192,226 tons to the U.S., a 16.6% hike from the previous year, accounting for 21.4% of total sales.

Nam Kim Steel increased its exports to the U.S. from 32,053 tons to 100,189 tons last year, nearly tripling its volume, representing about 10% of total output. Hoa Sen Group expanded its shipments to the U.S. by 4.1 times to 140,758 tons, accounting for about 7%. Hoa Phat’s exports to the U.S. soared from 7,908 tons to 80,114 tons, but still made up a small proportion of its total consumption of 8.1 million tons last year.

On the stock market, steel stocks reacted negatively on Monday following the announcement of the tariff. On Tuesday, HPG regained positive momentum, while NKG, HSG, and GDA saw slight declines.