Vietnam GDP can grow 6.7% or more in 2025: HDBank exec

Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 could reach 6.7% or more, says Tran Hoai Nam, deputy general director of Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDBank).

At the Vietnam Investment Forum 2025 held in HCMC last Friday, Nam said that the context at the end of this year creates room for optimism, so he chose the most distant number assessed by Standard Chartered Bank, which is 6.7%.

"In my opinion, international institutions are always cautious. In recent years, Vietnam has always achieved higher than that level.”

“With very new policy changes and determination of the government, there are also unpredictable factors, especially Donald Trump, but from the current information, I am very confident that GDP growth will reach 6.7% or more. The number I think of is 7% in 2025,” Nam added.

Nguyen Ba Hung, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, said he expects a slightly higher economic growth than 2024 in 2025.

In the third quarter of this year, ADB had forecast Vietnam's GDP growing by 6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025.

However, Hung also emphasized that the forecasts are directional, based on assumptions at that time. After forecasts, there will be policy measures and the world market may change.

"With ADB, we update the announcement quarterly, and the growth forecast will be updated next month," he said.

Hung added that in 2025, the world economic context will fluctuate unpredictably. With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the context will be both unpredictable and show signs of more difficulties in trade.

Trade is the driving force in 2024 but it will not be able to maintain the same level in 2025, he said

“There is also an assumption that the final year of the 2021–2025 term will be better, helping the domestic sector to increase. Therefore, ADB believes that next year will be better than this year," said Hung.

Le Anh Tuan, head of Investment at Dragon Capital Group, said that in 2008, the economy faced a crisis but GDP growth was recorded at 5.7%. In 2012, the growth was 5.1%, and in 2023, when electricity consumption was negative in the first six months of the year, it still topped 5%. Therefore, the growth forecast is mainly a trend; the 5-6% quantification is not important.

"We often look at specific numbers such as the number of exported containers of a business; consumption in retail chains, consumer goods, shopping malls; electricity consumption; the number of domestic tourists or international tourists to Vietnam, etc. These numbers reflect more realistically and clearly the components of the economy and are very important to pay attention to.”