Vietnam GDP growth can reach 4.7% in 2023, 6% in 2024: research unit AMRO

Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 4.7% in 2023 and 6% in 2024, according to the October edition of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

Versus the July edition of the report, the AMRO revised up the country’s 2023 growth from 4.4%, but revised down the 2024 performance from 6.4%.

Vietnam’s 2023 figure is above the ASEAN’s average of 4.4%. In the region, the highest figure belongs to the Philippines with 5.9%, Cambodia with 5.3%, Indonesia with 5%, and Laos with 4.8%. Meanwhile, the lowest ones are Singapore with 1%, Brunei with 1.1%, Myanmar with 2.2%, Thailand with 3.5%, and Malaysia with 4.2%.

In additional with the “+3” nations of China, Japan, and South Korea, the growth of the ASEAN+3 is estimated at 4.3% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024. With 5% in 2023, China is set to outperform Japan and South Korea with 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

The Vietnamese government targets a 6.5% growth this year, which was confirmed by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in August. But achieving economic growth of 6% this year in the best-case scenario is an uphill battle, said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong on October 5.

The AMRO pointed out key factors for its estimation, including spikes in the global commodity prices due to El Nino impacts, global export restrictions on food staples, reduction in oil supply; recession in the U.S. and Europe; slower-than-expected economic recovery in China due to weaknesses in the real estate sector and fiscal strains; and financial spillovers from tighter monetary policy in the U.S.

Regarding inflation, Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) is projected to reach 3.3% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. The figures are higher than 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, in the July edition of the report.

Vietnam’s CPI are set to be lower than the ASEAN’s average of 8.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, also smaller than those of the ASEAN+3 of 6.5% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024.

The figure of Vietnam is set to meet the target of 4.5% set by the National Assembly, the country’s highest legislative body.

The World Bank has revised down its Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 4.7% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, according to the bank’s October edition of its East Asia and The Pacific Economic Update.