Vietnam GDP growth can reach 4.7% in 2023, 6% in 2024: research unit AMRO

By Tri Duc
Sun, October 8, 2023 | 7:03 am GMT+7

Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 4.7% in 2023 and 6% in 2024, according to the October edition of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

Versus the July edition of the report, the AMRO revised up the country’s 2023 growth from 4.4%, but revised down the 2024 performance from 6.4%.

 A corner of Hanoi. Photo courtesy of VietNamNet newspaper.

A corner of Hanoi. Photo courtesy of VietNamNet newspaper.

Vietnam’s 2023 figure is above the ASEAN’s average of 4.4%. In the region, the highest figure belongs to the Philippines with 5.9%, Cambodia with 5.3%, Indonesia with 5%, and Laos with 4.8%. Meanwhile, the lowest ones are Singapore with 1%, Brunei with 1.1%, Myanmar with 2.2%, Thailand with 3.5%, and Malaysia with 4.2%.

In additional with the “+3” nations of China, Japan, and South Korea, the growth of the ASEAN+3 is estimated at 4.3% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024. With 5% in 2023, China is set to outperform Japan and South Korea with 1.9% and 1.3%, respectively.

The Vietnamese government targets a 6.5% growth this year, which was confirmed by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh in August. But achieving economic growth of 6% this year in the best-case scenario is an uphill battle, said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong on October 5.

The AMRO pointed out key factors for its estimation, including spikes in the global commodity prices due to El Nino impacts, global export restrictions on food staples, reduction in oil supply; recession in the U.S. and Europe; slower-than-expected economic recovery in China due to weaknesses in the real estate sector and fiscal strains; and financial spillovers from tighter monetary policy in the U.S.

Regarding inflation, Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) is projected to reach 3.3% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. The figures are higher than 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, in the July edition of the report.

Vietnam’s CPI are set to be lower than the ASEAN’s average of 8.2% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024, also smaller than those of the ASEAN+3 of 6.5% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024.

The figure of Vietnam is set to meet the target of 4.5% set by the National Assembly, the country’s highest legislative body.

The World Bank has revised down its Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 4.7% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, according to the bank’s October edition of its East Asia and The Pacific Economic Update.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Halal market presents major opportunities for Vietnamese businesses

Halal market presents major opportunities for Vietnamese businesses

The global Halal market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2030, with Malaysia alone expected to hit $113.2 billion, said Shariza binti Abdul Rasheed, Halal product manager at Maybank Malaysia.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:18 pm GMT+7

Steel major Hoa Phat to pour extra $130 mln into central Vietnam plant

Steel major Hoa Phat to pour extra $130 mln into central Vietnam plant

Vietnam’s leading steelmaker, Hoa Phat Group (HoSE: HPG), will increase investment in its Dung Quat 2 iron and steel production complex by VND3.4 trillion ($129.7 million) as part of an expansion plan.

Industries - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:03 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Lung Lo Construction Corporation (LLC), under the Ministry of National Defense, has submitted investment proposals for 14 offshore wind power projects with a combined capacity of 9,000 MW.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 5:07 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC has been fined VND92.5 million ($3,528) for failing to disclose bond-related information as required by law.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Quang Ninh province will hand over 4.9 hectares of reclaimed land to the Quang Ninh LNG-fuelled power plant project before August 11, local authorities stated at a meeting on Wednesday.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam’s seafood companies reported surging profits in Q2/2025, driven by importers ramping up purchases ahead of new U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:21 pm GMT+7

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Dragon Capital Group, Vietnam's largest asset manager, has appointed Le Anh Tuan as CEO of its arm Dragon Capital Vietfund Management Joint Stock Company (DCVFM), starting from October 1, 2025.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:01 pm GMT+7

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Bank of Thailand have added new Appointed Cross Currency Dealer (ACCD) participating banks to broaden services for bilateral transactions in local currencies across the three nations, Bank Indonesia said in a statement on Tuesday.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:48 pm GMT+7

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN member states are set to sign an MoU on the implementation of the ASEAN Power Grid during the bloc’s Energy Ministers’ Meeting this October.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:43 pm GMT+7

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam has outranked Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, Thai PBS reported on August 3, citing the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:41 pm GMT+7

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam’s export earnings grew by 14.8% to $262.44 billion in the first seven months of this year, while its import turnover rose by 17.9% to $252.26 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $10.18 billion.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:19 pm GMT+7

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia has agreed to buy and invest over $240 billion (MYR1.02 trillion) in the U.S. to help reduce the trade gap between the two countries.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:08 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Novaland, a major real estate developer in Vietnam, plans to issue nearly 152 million new shares to swap more than VND6 trillion ($228.8 million) worth of bond principal.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 10:11 am GMT+7

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) capital in Vietnam reached $13.6 billion in Jan-July, up 8.4% year-on-year, despite U.S. tariff concerns.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:57 am GMT+7

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Chang Lih Kang on Wednesday reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with the Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation (PETRA) in exploring the potential of nuclear energy.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:10 am GMT+7

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy expanded by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2/2025, up from 4.87% in the previous quarter, exceeding the forecasts of many economic organizations, which had previously projected a rate of less than 5%, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:07 am GMT+7