Vietnam GDP growth can reach 6% in 2024: ASEAN+3 macroeconomic research office

Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 6% in 2024, according to the January edition of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) retains that projection of Vietnam’s economic growth that it made in the October 2023 edition of the report.

Vietnam’s projected growth is the third highest in the region, after the Philippines with 6.3% and Cambodia with 6.2%.

The ASEAN region’s average growth is anticipated at 4.9% in 2024, higher than the previous figure of 4.3%.

For the “+3” region of China, Japan and South Korea, the average is 4.4%, with China at 5.3%, Japan 1.1% and South Korea 2.3%.

The report says Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, can reach 3.1% this year, lower than the October 2023 report’s figure of 3.4%. This is below the ASEAN average of 5.3% and the ASEAN+3’s average of 4.4%.

The ASEAN+3 region is forecast to end 2023 with a full-year growth of 4.4%, slightly higher than last October’s projection of 4.3%.

“The upward revision reflects the higher growth of 5.2% for China, up from last quarter’s forecast of 5%. Stabilizing industrial and services activities in the Chinese economy are helping to provide additional momentum to the region in 2024, alongside gradual improvement in exports to other key markets,” the AMRO report says.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 5.05% year-on-year to $430 billion in 2023, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO). The growth was higher than 2.91% in 2020 and 2.58% in 2021, the two peak years of the Covid-19 pandemic; but lower than 8.02% in 2022, the immediate post-pandemic year and 7.02% in pre-pandemic 2019. The 2023 growth missed the 6.5% target set by the National Assembly, Vietnam's highest legislative body.

According to the United Nations' (UN) World Economic Situation Prospects 2024 report, Vietnam could reach GDP growth of 6% this year and 6.5% in 2025.

In its January 2024 edition of the “Global Economic Prospects” report, the World Bank said Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 5.5% in 2024 and 6% in 2024.