Vietnam should consider establishing crisis and financial stability monitoring function at SBV: IMF
On the occasion of new year 2024, Jochen Schmittmann, resident representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Vietnam, talks to The Investor about the prospects of Vietnam’s economy and recommendations on deepening the capital market.
In its conclusions on the 2023 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam released in September, the IMF forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth at 4.7% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. The Vietnamese government has put the 2023 growth at 5%-plus. Has the IMF changed its view on Vietnam’s economy since? What will be the growth drivers and challenges for Vietnam next year?
In the first half of 2023, economic growth slowed to 3.7 percent year-on-year, with investment recording one of the worst performances in more than a decade. The unexpected and abrupt deterioration was driven by both domestic and external shocks; specifically, turmoil in the real estate sector and a sharp contraction in exports as global demand weakened. The economy started to rebound in the second half of 2023, and we expect this momentum to carry over into 2024.
We maintain our projection of 5.8 percent growth in 2024, driven by a continued recovery in domestic and external demand. There are, however, risks to our forecast. Underlying weaknesses remain in the real estate sector and some banks have limited ability to lend given the worsened quality of their assets. The manufacturing recovery depends on a sustained pickup in external demand. Vietnam will also need to navigate the risks from geoeconomic fragmentation given that Vietnam’s largest export partner is the U.S. whereas its largest import partner is China. Reforms to improve the business environment and enhance economic governance are important to sustain high growth.
Vietnam has experienced turbulence in the real estate and corporate bond markets this year. The government adopted Decree 08/2023 in March in an attempt to fix the corporate bond market. Many companies are still issuing bonds with high coupon rates. How do you see the Vietnamese government’s efforts to regain investor confidence? What recommendations do you have?
The government successfully contained risks in the real estate and banking sectors through a series of measures. While these provided temporary relief, further reforms to fully address the problems and achieve a more robust corporate bond market and healthy real estate sector are needed. Financing remains limited for many real estate developers given high leverage. Troubled bond issuers took advantage of regulatory relief, for example, Decree 08/2023 that you mentioned, which among other measures granted a two-year extension in bond maturities conditional on shareholder approval.
Other efforts included temporary forbearance on bank loans and allowing bond buybacks by banks. The State Bank of Vietnam acted decisively within the limitations of the existing legal framework in October 2022 when it took control of Saigon Commercial Bank and prevented further contagion. While these actions prevented worse outcomes, some may have shifted more risks to banks and weaknesses in the real estate and bond markets still need to be fully addressed.
For real estate developers, the authorities should consider creating an environment that promotes swift restructuring of viable firms and liquidation of non-viable firms when there is distress. Strengthening the effectiveness of the debt enforcement and insolvency framework is key. The 2022 episode also highlights the importance of strengthening cooperation on prevention and management of crises.
We think that the establishment of a crisis and financial stability monitoring function at the SBV, in consultation with the Ministry of Finance (MoF), would be important in this regard.
We also recommend the creation of an effective bank resolution framework that ensures that swift action can be taken, includes contingency plans to enhance crisis preparedness, and incorporates an emergency liquidity framework that makes liquidity available to illiquid solvent banks against adequate collateral and with appropriate pricing. Other reforms to enhance financial sector resilience are strengthening bank regulation and supervision, fully disclosing ownerships and related party lending, and enhancing securities markets oversight and implementing risk-based supervision of securities markets participants.
Vietnam’s economy remains highly reliant on bank loans, with the credit to GDP staying above 120% in recent years. What risks does this pose to the banking system? Do you have any recommendations on deepening the financial market?
Vietnam’s financial system is bank centered which partially explains the high credit to GDP ratio. In 2021, credit growth outpaced nominal GDP growth significantly, bringing the credit-to-GDP ratio to about 125%. Coupled with high borrower leverage this could pose risks to asset quality, especially if the economy weakens. To manage these risks, strong bank regulation and supervision are essential. Aggregate and bank specific credit targets should be phased out as they can undermine banks’ incentives for prudent lending. Instead of pushing for faster credit growth, the government should make use of its fiscal space to stimulate the economy if needed.
To deepen domestic capital markets, further institutional reforms to strengthen governance are essential. Such reforms include ensuring that investor protection and transparency principles are respected and that all investors are treated equally. Improving the capacity of rating agencies and making the process for the public listing of bonds less cumbersome would also boost confidence in the bond market and make it a more durable and stable source of funding. Equity markets could benefit from more SOE equitization.
- Read More
Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth target set at 6.5-7%
The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on Tuesday assigned the government to work for a GDP growth rate of 6.5-7% next year.
Economy - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 11:31 pm GMT+7
Murphy Oil spuds oil well in Vietnam, plans another in Q4/2024
Murphy Oil Corporation has started spudding activities at the Hai Su Vang -1X exploration well offshore southern Vietnam, the U.S.-headquartered oil firm says in its Q3/2024 performance review.
Energy - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 9:24 pm GMT+7
Shinhan Bank Vietnam leads syndicated term loan facility for hydropower project
Shinhan Bank Vietnam has been the lead arranger for a syndicated term loan facility to finance the Tra Khuc 2 hydropower project in the central Vietnam province of Quang Ngai.
Banking - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 5:45 pm GMT+7
Vietnam sees rising household affluence: report
Driven by sustained economic growth, Vietnam has seen a rising number of affluent households in recent years which has a great impact on consumer trends in the country, according to a market research report.
Economy - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 5:03 pm GMT+7
Canada seeks business opportunities in ASEAN
The Canada-ASEAN Business council (CABC) recently held a conference to help Canadian enterprises seek business opportunities in ASEAN.
Southeast Asia - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 4:54 pm GMT+7
Vietnam cement firms struggle with real estate, export challenges
Cement businesses in Vietnam have continued to face significant difficulties, with several companies reporting losses in the third quarter of 2024, primarily due to a sluggish domestic real estate market and challenges in exports.
Companies - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 4:44 pm GMT+7
Thailand strives to meet water demand in Eastern Economic Corridor
Demand for more raw water to serve business growth in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) of Thailand, particularly data centers and cloud services, has prompted a new study on joint water management from two suppliers in the country.
Southeast Asia - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 3:52 pm GMT+7
VinFast best-selling vehicle brand in Vietnam
VinFast, the electric vehicle (EV) arm of Vietnam's private conglomerate Vingroup, delivered over 51,000 units in Vietnam in the first 10 months of this year, making it the best-selling brand in the country.
Companies - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 3:32 pm GMT+7
Gluten-free cassava flour cake project wins startup contest in HCMC
Cusami, a project in Ho Chi Minh City’s Cu Chi district that specializes in creating different types of cakes with cassava flour, has won first prize at the 2024 green startup ideas/project competition.
Companies - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 3:10 pm GMT+7
Vietnam dong unlikely to depreciate strongly vs. US dollar in near term: broker
Depreciation pressure on the Vietnamese dong versus the U.S. dollar is likely to wane, and the USD/VND rate may not increase as strongly and fast as before, says Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).
Banking - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 2:31 pm GMT+7
Taiwan electronic firm Lite-On okays $132 mln construction budget for Vietnam plant
Taiwan-based Lite-On Technology Corporation, a world-leading provider in optoelectronics and power management, has approved a construction budget of $132 million for its factory in Vietnam.
Companies - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 12:17 pm GMT+7
Thailand cuts palm oil content in biofuel
Thailand's Ministry of Energy announced last Friday that it will reduce the palm oil content in its biofuel from 7% to 5% to deal with rising palm oil prices.
Southeast Asia - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 11:09 am GMT+7
Vietnam urges Toyota, Honda to switch to producing hybrid vehicles
Toyota and Honda should draft detailed plans to switch their production in Vietnam from petroleum vehicles to hybrid ones, said Tran Duy Dong, Chairman of Vinh Phuc province.
Industries - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 10:56 am GMT+7
Vietnam Party leader holds phone talks with US President-elect
Vietnam's Party chief To Lam talked over the phone with President-elect of the U.S. Donald Trump on the evening of November 11.
Politics - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 9:11 am GMT+7
Donald Trump won. What’s next for Vietnam real estate market?
Under Trump’s administration in the next four years, there might be further supply chain diversification, acceleration of friendshoring and nearshoring strategies, and trade polarization globally. Vietnam may benefit from these trends, write Avison Young Vietnam analysts.
Consulting - Tue, November 12, 2024 | 8:16 am GMT+7
Bright prospects seen for banking, securities, real estate, retail stocks next year: broker
Banking, securities, real estate and retail stocks have the potential to do well in 2025, says Dao Hong Duong, director of sectors and stock analysis with VPBank Securities (VPBankS).
Banking & Finance - Mon, November 11, 2024 | 9:37 pm GMT+7