Vietnam to top GDP growth among emerging markets till 2035: S&P Global

Vietnam is set to become an emerging market with highest GDP growth of 6.2% on average per year, S&P Global says in its report released on Wednesday.

Emerging markets will play a crucial role in shaping the global economy over the next decade, averaging 4.06% GDP growth through 2035, compared with 1.59% for advanced economies, according to the rating agency's Look Forward Journal: Emerging Markets - A Decisive Decade report.

By 2035, emerging markets will contribute about 65% of global economic growth. This growth will be driven mainly by emerging economies in Asia-Pacific, including China, India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, it noted.

Vietnam can top the chart among emerging markets with annual GDP growth of 6.2% on average, followed by India with 5.9%, the Philippines with 4.8%, Indonesia with 4.7%, Turkiye with 4.5%, and mainland China with 4.3%.

S&P Global attributed Vietnam’s pacey growth to its policy consistency and a focus on reinforcing its trade potential. The country’s strong presence in evolving global supply chains will be determined by sustained progress in addressing infrastructural, labor and resource constraints.

Vietnam can also benefit from the global relocation of the supply chain, partly thanks to its growing ties with the United States, it added.

S&P Global pointed out the affordable workforce as another strength of Vietnam. Vietnam has emulated China’s strategy as firms seek cheaper labor and lower risk from the trade protectionism of customer markets such as the United States.

The country’s exports of goods and services per employee surpassed China’s as early as 2014. This metric grew 5.8% annually in the five years to 2023 and is expected to grow 5.1% annually in the next five years.

Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2024 expanded 6.82% year-on-year, the General Statistics Office (GSO) reported.

In the nine-month period of 2024, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 3.2%, lower than the same period of the previous years (except 2020) due to heavy impacts from super typhoon Yagi. It accounted for only 5.37% of the overall economic expansion.

The industry and construction sector increased by 8.19% and made up 46.22% of the economic expansion, while the respective figures of the service sector were 6.95% and 48.41%.