Vietnamese stocks entering new growth cycle: broker

Vietnam’s stock market is poised to enter a new growth cycle where short-term fluctuations may only serve as a stepping stone to a more positive long-term trend, according to leading domestic brokerage SSI Securities.

In its latest report, SSI Research noted that the market posted strong gains early in 2026, approaching the 1,920-point target before correcting in March. The pullback, however, was described as largely “tactical,” driven by profit-taking, interest rate concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties.

Over the medium term, the broker said the growth outlook remains underpinned by supportive macroeconomic fundamentals. Vietnam is targeting annual GDP growth of around 10%, fueled by large-scale infrastructure investment in transport, energy and urban development. In the first quarter of 2026, GDP expanded by 7.83%, signaling a clear economic recovery.

SSI Research added that as the real estate and gold markets show signs of cooling, and regulatory tightening weighs on cryptocurrencies, domestic capital is likely to rotate back into equities.

At the same time, a strong pipeline of initial public offerings, including Highlands Coffee, CP Vietnam, and Dien May Xanh, is expected to deepen the market and support liquidity.

The report also said Vietnam remains on track for a potential upgrade to secondary emerging market status by FTSE Russell in September this year, which could attract an estimated $1.67 billion in passive inflows from global exchange-traded funds. These inflows are expected to be phased in over several quarters, helping the market absorb capital in an orderly manner.

“Experience from other markets suggests significant medium-term upside following an upgrade, even if short-term volatility may occur,” the report said.

Against this backdrop, several sectors are expected to benefit.

The banking sector is forecast to maintain double-digit earnings growth in 2026, supported by sustained credit demand, stabilizing net interest margins after a decline in 2025, and manageable asset quality risks.

Consumer stocks are also seen continuing their growth trajectory, driven by store network expansion, rising market share and supportive policies, including higher taxable income thresholds effective from January 2026. However, rising oil prices could weigh on consumer sentiment.

Meanwhile, building materials companies are well-positioned to benefit from robust construction activity, which is expected to boost demand and allow producers to pass on higher input costs.

Rising interest rates are also seen as a positive factor for insurers and state-owned enterprises with large cash holdings, as higher deposit yields could lift income. Companies in sectors such as oil and gas, fertilizers and consumer goods, particularly those with strong balance sheets and ample cash reserves, are expected to benefit the most.