Vietnam's 16% credit growth target for 2025 achievable: StanChart exec 

2024 was a difficult year, but Vietnam's credit growth was still over 15%, and this year's 16% target, as directed by the State Bank, is achievable, said Nguyen Thuy Hanh, Standard Chartered Vietnam's CEO and head of banking & coverage.

Hanh was speaking at the event Global & Vietnam Outlook H1 2025 in Ho Chi Minh City on Thursday.

Several key factors are driving credit growth, Hanh noted. First, public spending plays a significant role. Second, the additional costs associated with supporting the private sector's business activities are contributing to the increase.

Additionally, if the government continues to focus on attracting more foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam, it will lead to more job opportunities. The government’s focus on achieving high average income growth will also help raise wages for workers, which in turn will increase consumption expectations, she added.

For a long time, the government and the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) have kept interest rates low to stimulate economic growth. However, the SBV has also maintained a flexible monetary policy, balancing exchange rates and interest rates to preserve the value of the Vietnamese dong, while keeping interest rates low to support the economy. The monetary policy will remain in place through 2025, according to Hanh.

She emphasized Vietnam’s resilience as one of ASEAN’s most dynamic economies. “Vietnam has in recent decades posted consistently high growth rates, even in the face of periodic challenges, transforming into a thriving upper middle-income economy.”

In terms of GDP, Edward Lee, chief economist, ASEAN and South Asia, Standard Chartered Bank, noted that global growth is set to remain subdued, with GDP easing from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025 and inflation easing, but Fed rate-cut expectations have been lowered.

"Tight monetary conditions, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties may continue to impact global markets," he said.

For Vietnam, Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist, Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, projects strong Vietnam GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025 (7.5% in H1 and 6.1% in H2), driven by continued business expansion in 2025 and beyond, with foreign investment playing a key role in driving growth.

He pointed out the drivers of Vietnam’s economic growth include positive FDI growth with manufacturing attracting the most investment, followed by the property sector, strong retail sales and industrial production, robust export growth, and tourism recovery.

Standard Chartered is the only international bank with a presence in all 10 ASEAN countries. Vietnam, a dynamic and key market in the region, plays a vital role in Standard Chartered’s growth strategy, offering promising opportunities in retail, wealth and priority banking, corporate banking, trade, and financial institutions.

The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on Wednesday set the 2025 economic expansion target at "8% or more" upon a government proposal, up from the 6.5-7% approved in November last year.

The target is associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances of the economy, creating a foundation for higher growth in the following years, it stated.

Other targets include a GDP scale of over $500 billion, GDP per capita of over $5,000, and an average CPI hike of 4.5-5%. The country's GDP in 2024 was estimated at $476.3 billion.