Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index could reach 1,500 points in 2025: Kafi Securities CEO

With support from factors such as the prospect of Vietnam’s market status upgrade and foreign capital inflows, the VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), could reach 1,500 points this year, said Trinh Thanh Can, CEO of Kafi Securities JSC.

At the “Finance Street” talkshow on Vietnam Television channel 8 (VTV8) on Monday, Can expressed his belief that despite facing external challenges, Vietnam’s economy in 2025 will continue to grow positively, with strong corporate profits and breakthrough changes likely driving significant growth in the stock market, creating numerous opportunities for investors.

He noted that in the context of U.S. President Donald Trump’s "America First" policy, which employs trade protectionism as a negotiation tool with countries worldwide, Vietnam is in a favorable position since the U.S. mainly targets larger countries as its competitors.

Can said he believes that Vietnam will benefit from the trade war, citing the continued positive shift in FDI towards Vietnam in recent years.

In the first two months of 2025 alone, the country attracted $6.9 billion in registered FDI capital, up more than 35% compared to the same period last year. “This is a remarkable number, especially since early-year FDI growth is usually slow due to the holiday season,” he said.

Regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) policies, the CEO held that the Fed may reduce interest rates in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, which could encourage foreign capital to gradually return to Vietnam.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange risks are just short-term as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has been implementing flexible and proactive policies to stabilize the market, he said. Mentioning some pressure on interest rates, Can noted that any rate hikes would likely be modest and still suitable for business development in 2025.

Vietnam stock market outlook

According to Kafi Securities, the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 is expected to perform better than in 2024. The VN-Index could close above 1,300 points in Q1/2025 and grow by around 12-15% by the end of the year, supported by factors such as GDP growth, increased public investment, and rising money supply.

The market will also benefit from efforts to elevate Vietnam’s stock market status and enhance its international credibility. Currently, foreign investors continue to be net sellers due to short-term pressures from exchange rates and interest rates, but these are seen as temporary risks.

“With the prospect of a market status upgrade, foreign capital will return to Vietnam in Q3 and Q4. Coupled with positive economic indicators, the market could close the year with a growth of 12-15%, with the VN-Index potentially reaching 1,500 points,” Can said.

He noted that banking stocks are expected to perform well, as they have the largest scales in the market, have high liquidity, and stand to benefit from GDP growth, increased money supply and rising credit growth.

The technology group also has considerable room for expansion as Vietnam is now part of the global chip supply chain and possesses strong technological resources, he added.

Another promising sector is industrial real estate, which is anticipated to gain from the shift in manufacturing from China to Vietnam. Construction and building materials such as steel, cement, and stone will see high demand for infrastructure projects heavily invested in during 2025.

Lastly, the retail sector, including F&B, electronics, and textiles, is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand in the second half of 2025.