VN-Index forecast to hit 1,300 points next year: broker VCBS

By Minh Hue
Sat, December 16, 2023 | 11:02 am GMT+7

Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,300 points in 2024 on the back of low deposit interest rates at commercial banks, says leading broker Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).

In a new report on Vietnam’s stock market outlook, the broker says that while low bank deposit interest rates is a major factor, global macroeconomic risks are likely to trigger both falls and gains next year.

The VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,300 points in 2024. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

The VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,300 points in 2024. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

“Risks that the Vietnamese economy as well as its stock market will face are a pause to the easing of monetary policy as both purchasing power and capital needs of the economy have not seen any significant improvements, and higher inflation,” the report says.

Lingering geopolitical tensions in the region and the world can continue to drag down economic growth of Vietnam's major trade and investment partners, it adds.

The broker projects average trading value per session to reach VND16-17 trillion ($658 million-$700 million) on all three exchanges in Vietnam – the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, the Hanoi Stock Exchange and the Unlisted Public Companies Market (UPCoM) – for the whole of 2024, down about 5% compared to 2023.

Given the strong divergence likely among stock groups, VCBS recommends that investors look for investment opportunities in businesses with bright prospects and buy stocks within a reasonable valuation zone to ensure optimum risk management.

It recommends that investors focus on three major groups – banking, industrial real estate and infrastructure construction using public investment funds.

The broker explains its recommendation thus: apart from low interest rates that can go lower, the ongoing trend of production shifting from China to other countries in Asia is benefiting Vietnam’s industrial real estate sector; and the government is speeding up disbursement of public investment capital for major infrastructure projects.

It says long-term investors can look for opportunities in "defensive" industries with business results less dependent on economic cycles like information technology, telecommunications, hydropower, thermal power, and water supply.

Another broker, KIS Vietnam Securities, has also forecast that the Vietnamese stock market will make a breakthrough in 2024 thanks to the recovery of the domestic macro-economy and positive influence of supportive policies from the government and the State Bank of Vietnam.

The market outlook is optimistic because: the net selling momentum of foreign investors will gradually slow down or may turn into net buying; and selling pressure from domestic investors is no longer strong (preventing sharp falls), says Truong Hien Phuong, senior director, KIS Vietnam Securities.

The VN-Index closed Friday down 0.71% at 1102.3 points.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Vietnam’s army-backed construction firm proposes 14 offshore wind power projects

Lung Lo Construction Corporation (LLC), under the Ministry of National Defense, has submitted investment proposals for 14 offshore wind power projects with a combined capacity of 9,000 MW.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 5:07 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai fined for bond information disclosure failure

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC has been fined VND92.5 million ($3,528) for failing to disclose bond-related information as required by law.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:31 pm GMT+7

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Northern Vietnam province accelerates $2.2 bln LNG-to-power project

Quang Ninh province will hand over 4.9 hectares of reclaimed land to the Quang Ninh LNG-fuelled power plant project before August 11, local authorities stated at a meeting on Wednesday.

Energy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam's seafood firms ride profit wave ahead of US tariff hike

Vietnam’s seafood companies reported surging profits in Q2/2025, driven by importers ramping up purchases ahead of new U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:21 pm GMT+7

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Le Anh Tuan appointed new CEO of Dragon Capital Vietfund Management JSC

Dragon Capital Group, Vietnam's largest asset manager, has appointed Le Anh Tuan as CEO of its arm Dragon Capital Vietfund Management Joint Stock Company (DCVFM), starting from October 1, 2025.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 2:01 pm GMT+7

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand expand local currency transaction network

Bank Indonesia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and Bank of Thailand have added new Appointed Cross Currency Dealer (ACCD) participating banks to broaden services for bilateral transactions in local currencies across the three nations, Bank Indonesia said in a statement on Tuesday.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:48 pm GMT+7

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN to sign MoU on regional power grid implementation

ASEAN member states are set to sign an MoU on the implementation of the ASEAN Power Grid during the bloc’s Energy Ministers’ Meeting this October.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:43 pm GMT+7

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam overtakes Thailand to become world's second-largest rice exporter

Vietnam has outranked Thailand as the world’s second-largest rice exporter in the first half of 2025, Thai PBS reported on August 3, citing the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:41 pm GMT+7

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam posts trade surplus of $10.18 bln in 7 months

Vietnam’s export earnings grew by 14.8% to $262.44 billion in the first seven months of this year, while its import turnover rose by 17.9% to $252.26 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $10.18 billion.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:19 pm GMT+7

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia pledges big purchases, investments with US

Malaysia has agreed to buy and invest over $240 billion (MYR1.02 trillion) in the U.S. to help reduce the trade gap between the two countries.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 12:08 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Vietnam's leading property developer Novaland to issue 152 mln shares to settle $229 mln debt

Novaland, a major real estate developer in Vietnam, plans to issue nearly 152 million new shares to swap more than VND6 trillion ($228.8 million) worth of bond principal.

Companies - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 10:11 am GMT+7

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Vietnam's FDI capital disbursement hits five-year record high despite US tariff turmoil

Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) capital in Vietnam reached $13.6 billion in Jan-July, up 8.4% year-on-year, despite U.S. tariff concerns.

Economy - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 9:57 am GMT+7

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia steps up efforts to explore nuclear energy potential

Malaysia’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation Chang Lih Kang on Wednesday reaffirmed his ministry’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with the Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation (PETRA) in exploring the potential of nuclear energy.

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:10 am GMT+7

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy grows faster than expected

Indonesia's economy expanded by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2/2025, up from 4.87% in the previous quarter, exceeding the forecasts of many economic organizations, which had previously projected a rate of less than 5%, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).

Southeast Asia - Thu, August 7, 2025 | 8:07 am GMT+7

Philippine energy group eyes investment in Vietnam’s power sector

Philippine energy group eyes investment in Vietnam’s power sector

AboitizPower wants to invest in Vietnam’s electricity industry, especially in transmission infrastructure, said Danel Aboitiz, executive director of the corporation.

Energy - Wed, August 6, 2025 | 11:11 pm GMT+7

Vietnam seeks 8.3-8.5% economic expansion for 2025

Vietnam seeks 8.3-8.5% economic expansion for 2025

The Government has requested the State Bank of Vietnam to proactively adjust the credit growth aim for this year in line with a GDP expansion target of 8.3-8.5%.

Economy - Wed, August 6, 2025 | 10:41 pm GMT+7