VND/USD exchange rate surges again

The VND/USD exchange rate has risen sharply since the end of last week, now reaching VND25,900 in the free market, an increase of 4.5% from the beginning of 2024.

On the Wednesday morning, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) set the reference exchange rate at VND24,320, up VND12 from the previous day.

At state-controlled Vietcombank, one of the "Big 4" banks in Vietnam, the exchange rate is currently listed at VND25,206 - 25,536 (buy-sell), up VND13 from the previous session, and a 4.6% increase from the beginning of 2024.

The domestic exchange rate has been volatile amid a strengthening global USD, which has reached its highest level in two years following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) announcement of a slower pace for interest rate cuts in the coming year.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), has risen 0.14%, reaching 108.24.

Since late September, the greenback has increased by more than 7%, partly due to expectations of faster economic growth in the U.S. driven by policies under President-elect Donald Trump.

These expectations contrast with more cautious growth forecasts and interest rate policies in other global economies, leading to a widening interest rate differential between central banks.

This interest rate differential continues to support the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar, particularly as the Fed is expected to slow its rate cuts next year.

This situation poses significant challenges for Vietnam’s monetary policy in late 2024 and early 2025, as deposit interest rates for VND are at their lowest levels in three years. As of November, the rates ranged from 5.2% to 6% annually for a 12-month term.

Exchange rate fluctuations have been unpredictable throughout 2024. In May, the VND depreciated by over 5% against the USD and then cooled down. By August, the increase had narrowed to around 2.3%.

Since October, the exchange rate has continued to rise, and by October 23, commercial banks had listed the buy-sell rate at VND25,460 - 25,560 per USD.

According to some experts, the trend of low interest rates is unlikely to persist into 2025. The State Bank of Vietnam has kept rates low for an extended period to stimulate economic growth, but with growing pressure on the exchange rate, the central bank may need to adjust its policy.

Michael Kokalari, chief economist at Vietnam's leading fund manager VinaCapital, in a report released on December 12 wrote that the Vietnamese dong is likely to depreciate 3% in 2025 on anticipation that the US Dollar/DXY Index will finish 2025 nearly unchanged,

In a report issued on December 12, Standard Chartered forecasts Fed rate cuts, which should lead to a softer-USD bias over the next few quarters, will result in the exchange rate of USD/VND at 25,250 by the end of 2024 and 25,450 by Q2/2025.

Tthe bank predicts the USD may face a period of weakness early in 2025 due to continued Fed rate cuts and uncertainty about policy implementation. But it is anticipated to strengthen in H2/2025 as fiscal and tariff measures under Trump 2.0 are clarified and implemented.