WB projects Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3% in 2026, best in East Asia & Pacific

In the January 2026 edition of its Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank Group anticipated Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027.

The projected growth of Vietnam are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher than those in the June 2025 edition of the report.

The figures are the highest in the East Asia & Pacific. According to the report, other top figures in the region in 2026 are China with 4.4%, Mongolia with 5.6%, the Philippines with 5.3%, Indonesia with 5%.

While the broader East Asia & Pacific region is expected to see growth moderate to 4.4% in 2026 due to a structural slowdown in China, Vietnam remains a standout performer.

A primary engine of Vietnam’s resilience is its booming electronics sector. The report highlights that industrial production has increased substantially, driven largely by AI-driven demand for semiconductor exports.

Furthermore, Vietnam is benefiting from a strategic reconfiguration of global supply chains. Foreign direct investment (FDI) from China into Vietnam has seen a notable increase in both announcements and completed transactions in recent years.

Additionally, the services sector has been bolstered by a recovery in tourist arrivals to pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the positive outlook, the WB warns of significant downside risks. The East Asia & Pacific, including Vietnam, remains highly vulnerable to external trade shocks, particularly given its high exposure to the U.S. market. The delayed impact of higher trade barriers and persistent trade policy uncertainty regarding rules-of-origin could dampen activity and exports.

According to an HSBC report released on Tuesday, national GDP growth is expected to hit 6.7% in 2026, higher than the WB's forecast of 6.3%.

Exports of the right products, including electronics, amid AI-driven demand and widening market share in the U.S. are likely to shield Vietnam from some trade headwinds in 2026, the report noted.

"Demand for AI-driven chips amid the escalation of the U.S.-China chip race has reshaped the global semiconductor landscape. Therefore, there’s no better time to export the electronics products as a way to shield from the tariff impact. Fortunately, Vietnam is in the league, though its exports are still concentrated in low-end consumer electronics," it said.

HSBC analysts expect the emphasis on infrastructure development to continue in the new year, accelerating key mega projects and lifting growth.

Vietnam’s economy grew 8.02% in 2025, its second-fastest pace in the past 15 years, driven mainly by services and industrial production, data from the National Statistics Office shows.

The country’s growth of 8.02% in 2025 stood out as a bright spot amid continued global volatility, including trade tensions and U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, and world's economic slowdown.

The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on November 12 approved a resolution setting an economic expansion target of at least 10% for 2026, per capita GDP at $5,400-5,500, and inflation controlled at around 4.5%.