Foreign outflows in Vietnam’s stock market to ease from mid-2026: brokerage CEO

Net foreign selling on Vietnam’s stock market is expected to ease and potentially reverse from mid-2026 as macro conditions stabilize and prospects for a market status upgrade become clearer, CEO of An Binh Securities (ABS) said.

At a recent talk show "Financial Street" broadcast on Vietnam Television, CEO Nguyen Quang Dat said foreign investors have been persistent net sellers since 2022, with outflows accelerating in 2025 to more than $6 billion, reducing foreign ownership by market capitalisation from 22% in 2019 to about 12% currently.

The selling trend has weighed on sentiment even as the market has rebounded for four consecutive weeks, gaining more than 140 points since the start of the month. Foreign outflows have not only hit large-cap stocks but also spread across sectors, reflecting caution amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Last week alone, foreign investors net sold over VND4.71 trillion ($179.06 million) on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, including VND3.8 trillion of Vinhomes (VHM) shares and nearly VND1.18 trillion of FPT Corporation (FPT) shares.

Dat attributed the outflows to multiple factors, including risks in Vietnam’s property sector in 2022, rising global interest rates as U.S. and Japanese bond yields increased amid inflation pressures, and ongoing uncertainties such as trade tensions and geopolitical risks, most recently conflicts involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

However, he expects the trend to reverse from mid-2026 as inflation pressures ease and geopolitical conditions stabilize. Prospects of Vietnam’s stock market being upgraded to emerging market status, along with a pipeline of initial public offerings and equitizations, could also attract renewed foreign inflows.

To boost market appeal, Dat said Vietnam needs to expand its stock market weight in global emerging market indices by diversifying listings, especially through more state-owned enterprise listings, and improving the legal framework. Measures should include easing foreign ownership limits and introducing non-voting depositary receipts, he added.

A market status upgrade could provide a short- to medium-term boost and open access to large global investment funds, though long-term performance will still depend on macroeconomic fundamentals.

Dat also expects the share of institutional investors to rise, helping reduce volatility and improve capital quality, while supporting companies’ fundraising capacity and lowering capital costs.

He cautioned that a market upgrade would not necessarily trigger an immediate surge in inflows, with benefits likely concentrated in large-cap, highly liquid stocks with available foreign ownership room. Investors should prioritise such stocks or consider exchange-traded funds focused on blue-chip names, he said.