High US anti-dumping tariff to have limited impact on Vietnam's top steelmaker Hoa Phat

A preliminary anti-dumping tariff of nearly 122% imposed by the United States on steel products from Hoa Phat Group is unlikely to significantly affect the Vietnamese steelmaker, analysts say, as exports to the U.S. account for only 3% of the company’s revenue.

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has selected Hoa Phat as the mandatory respondent in an anti-dumping investigation into imports of reinforcing steel bar (rebar) from Vietnam.

According to the preliminary findings, the temporary anti-dumping duty applied to Hoa Phat and its affiliated companies was set at 121.97%, an unusually high level.

The DOC announcement also mentioned Bulgaria and Egypt, which face different tariff levels. The agency said that imports of rebar from these countries, along with Vietnam, had increased rapidly in both volume and value in recent years.

From negligible levels previously, total imports of rebar into the United States rose sharply by 2024, with shipments valued at around $66 million from Bulgaria, about $114 million from Egypt, and nearly $30 million from Vietnam.

As Vietnam’s largest steel producer, Hoa Phat was selected as the representative company for a detailed examination of pricing structures and export activities in the country’s steel sector.

Americas account for only about 3% of revenue

In its financial statements, Hoa Phat does not separately disclose revenue from the U.S. market, grouping it instead under the broader Americas region.

Company data show revenue from the Americas has risen since 2023. Sales reached over VND1.87 trillion ($71.25 million) in 2023 and increased to VND4.38 trillion ($166.58 million) in 2024, representing growth of about 134%.

The trend continued in the first half of 2025, when revenue from the Americas reached over VND2.78 trillion ($105.88 million), up about 11.5% from nearly VND2.5 trillion in the same period a year earlier.

Despite this growth, the Americas still account for only a small portion of the group’s overall revenue.

Domestic sales remain the dominant contributor, accounting for roughly 70% of total revenue. Meanwhile, revenue from Asian markets outside Vietnam rose sharply in 2024, with its share increasing from about 19% to more than 22%, before falling to around 10% in the first half of 2025.

The Americas market contributes only around 3% of total revenue, and while the absolute value has increased over time, its proportion has remained largely unchanged.

Hoa Phat exports several products to the United States, including steel pipes, construction steel such as rebar and hot-rolled coil (HRC).

However, rebar - the product currently subject to the preliminary anti-dumping duty - accounts for only a small share of the company’s revenue from the Americas, which itself represents a minor portion of overall sales.

According to estimates by Maybank Investment Bank, Hoa Phat exports around 100,000 tons of steel annually to the United States that fall under the tariff investigation, equivalent to less than 1% of the group’s total steel sales.

This suggests that while the steep tariff could effectively eliminate the competitiveness of Hoa Phat’s rebar in the U.S. market, the direct impact on the company’s short-term revenue is expected to be limited.

Final decision expected in July

Under the DOC’s investigation process, the preliminary ruling represents only an early stage of the case. The agency is expected to issue a final decision on July 28, 2026, after reviewing responses and comments from the company and other stakeholders.

In practice, Hoa Phat has participated in several U.S. trade defense investigations in the past with relatively positive outcomes.

Some of its products, such as square steel pipes, were previously determined not to circumvent tariffs and maintained a zero-duty rate, while carbon steel pipe products were also not subject to tariffs after earlier investigations.

For hot-rolled coil (HRC), a strategic product for the group, export markets are currently concentrated in Europe and the ASEAN region, while U.S. authorities have not initiated any new investigations into this product category.