Moody's upgrades outlook of Techcombank in 2024 to 'stable'

Moody's Ratings has revised the outlook of Techcombank from negative to stable, the U.S. credit rating agency said Wednesday.

Moody's also affirmed Techcombank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA of ba3, LT FC and LC Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) of Ba2, and its LT Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment of Ba2 (cr).

At the same time, Moody's affirmed the bank's Not-Prime (NP) short-term (ST) FC and LC deposit ratings, NP ST FC and LC issuer ratings, NP ST FC and LC CRRs, and NP(cr) ST CR Assessment.

Baseline Credit Assessment Index (BCA) of Techcombank at ba3 continues to make the lender stay in the group of leading Vietnamese banks in terms of business profile and risk profile, the bank highlighted.

Techcombank is the first bank to have outlook upgraded by Moody's in 2024, reflecting the rating agency’s recognition of its resilience in a challenging environment of 2022-2023.

The ratings, BCA affirmation and outlook revision to stable are based on Techcombank's above industry average capitalization and profitability, supported by its stable funding.

Specifically, Techcombank's capital adequacy and performance ratios continue to be higher than industry averages, supported further by diverse funding sources.

According to the Moody’s report, Techcombank's above industry average capitalization and profitability will support its ratings. Its Tier 1 capital ratio was at 14% as of end-December 2023 while its return on average assets (ROAA) was 2.4% in 2023, compared to the peer average ROAA of 1.4% over the same period.

According to data published by S&P Capital IQ at the end of February 2024 on the ROA index of South East Asia and India banks with book value of more than $3 billion during 2019-2023, Central Asian Bank (BCA) of Indonesia and Techcombank of Vietnam are leading with ROAs of 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively.

Techcombank's funding and liquidity will remain broadly stable. Its deposit base improved in 2023 with gains in its current and savings account deposits (CASA) ratio to 40%, a level that is one of the highest among Vietnamese banks rated by Moody's. The bank's efforts to mobilize deposits and the satisfactory liquidity in the system supported its good deposit growth in 2023.

Moody's expects credit risks from the bank's sizeable exposure to the real estate sector to stabilize over the next 12-18 months. Moody’s assessed that Techcombank will benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, as home purchases increase, contributing to a rise in both absolute and ratio of home loans to real estate loans.

This remark is particularly derived from the bank’s focus on lending investors, developers of real estate of better quality than the market's average level. Moody’s said that Techcombank's credit risk related to real estate loans will be stable over the next 12-18 months.

According to Moody's, real estate transactions in Vietnam have shown many positive signs, with market supply expected to increase, in an environment where interest rates have fallen sharply from 200 to 300 points recently.

The recovery of the economy, plus positive and timely policies and direction of the Government will contribute to a stronger recovery of the real estate market in the near future. High capital adequacy ratio, and ability to operate effectively (including profitability) is also an important factor in Moodys' assessment.