Contrasting Q2 results have been recorded across upstream, midstream and downstream firms in the Vietnamese oil and gas industry.
Upstream companies are into exploration and exploitation of oil and gas; midstream into transportation, storage and distribution; while downstream into conversion of oil and gas into finished products for delivery to customers.
In the upstream group, PetroVietnam Technical Services Corporation (PVS) and Petrovietnam Drilling Investment Corporation (PV Drilling, PVD) recorded impressive Q2 business results.
PVS posted Q2 net revenues of VND4.71 trillion ($198.5 million), up 24% year-on-year, and after-tax profit of VND236.7 billion ($9.97 million), up 23 times. The increase in profit is based on a very low figure in Q2/2022, when it recorded its lowest pre-tax profit in three years.
PVD, meanwhile, reported Q2 revenues of VND1.41 trillion ($59.5 million), down 6% year-on-year; and after-tax profits of VND155 billion ($6.5 million), compared to a loss of VND74 billion ($3.12 million) in the same period last year. This was the highest result for PVD since the fourth quarter of 2017.
Meanwhile, the midstream group recorded Q2 revenue declines across the board. Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC (BSR), Petrolimex (PLX), PV OIL, COMECO (COM), Thalexim (TLP), and NSHPETRO (PSH) saw revenues fall by between 22.07% and 64.45% year-on-year.
But two of them, PLX and PSH, were able to record net profits, compared to losses in the same period last year.
PLX said a sharp drop in operating costs enabled a Q2 after-tax profit of nearly VND850 billion ($35.8 million), compared to the loss of VND140.7 billion ($5.9 million) in the same period the previous year.
The company said its Q2 profits had also increased sharply due to better returns from the gasoline business under normal conditions. The world energy supply and oil prices were not affected as abnormally as happened during the Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in February 2022.
Similarly, PSH recorded Q2 after-tax profits of VND67.4 billion ($2.84 million) against a loss of VND264.5 billion ($11.15 million) the previous year. The company said it was able to do better this year because of the domestic gasoline price stabilization mechanism and a reduction in sales and administrative costs.
PLX and PSH were also the only two midstream companies to report strong profit growth in the first half of the year, with the former earning VND1.52 trillion ($63.9 million), up nearly 392% year-on-year, and the latter making VND266.3 billion ($11.2 million), compared to a loss of VND251 billion ($10.58 million) the previous year.
Mixed results were also seen in the downstream group. PV GAS (GAS) and PDV reported Q2 after-tax profits of nearly VND3.2 trillion ($134.7 million) and VND8.2 billion ($345,500), down 38% and nearly 58.4% year-on-year, respectively.
Meanwhile, PetroVietnam Transport Corporation (PVT) and PV Trans Pacific JSC (PVP) posted after-tax profits of VND375.6 billion ($15.8 million) and VND54.8 billion ($2.3 million), respectively, up 46% and 236% year-on-year, respectively.
International supply cuts
An August 6 report by Investing.com said oil prices were moving sideways in the short term, but still holding record highs in the last four months after major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend supply cuts. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said that the country will reduce oil exports by about 300,000 barrels per day in September.
The report also cited Saudi Arabia's state news agency as saying the world's largest oil exporter will continue to implement a voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day for another month, until the end of September.
In this situation, investors expect the stimulus policies of major oil importer China to act as a significant psychological support.
Brent oil futures are steady around $86 per barrel, while WTI oil futures remain at $82 per barrel, the highest since April 2023.
In Vietnam, based on the positive movement of oil prices, KIS Securities recommends increasing the proportion of gasoline industry, especially upstream enterprises, in an investor’s securities portfolio. However, the firm also warns that unpredictability of oil prices is a big risk that could change the industry outlook faster than expected.
The top choices of KIS are PVD and GAS. PVD leads the rig rental market in Vietnam with a market share of about 50% and has expanded its business to the Southeast Asian market.
GAS, the exclusive gas transportation and trading company in Vietnam, also provides input fuel for gas-fired power plants, fertilizer factories and industrial parks in Vietnam. GAS is also the market leader in the LPG market and has plans to become a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplier.
Leading broker VNDirect expects the domestic drilling market to become more active from 2024 onwards with many exploration and production (E&P) projects getting implemented. These include some large-scale projects like Kinh Ngu Trang or Golden Camel and Block B-O Mon. This will create more drilling programs and offer more job opportunities for drilling service providers, especially domestic enterprises.
Domestic E&P activities will also be more active from 2024 onwards with many oil and gas field development projects set to be implemented in the near future.
VNDirect recognizes that the energy crisis caused by recent geopolitical tensions has highlighted the importance of self-reliance in energy supplies, thereby providing more impetus for regulators to step up E&P activities in Vietnam. This move gains added urgency in the context of most of the existing coal mines in Vietnam approaching the end of their mining life. A natural decline in output of about 15-25% per year is expected.
The BIDV Securities Company (BSC) also has a positive view of stocks in the upstream gasoline industry like PVS or PVD based on prices of new/renewed rig services, improved performance and the potential of new projects being a great source of jobs for PVS.
For the midstream group, BSC recommends PVT with the expectation that profits from core business will improve in the near future, thanks to the increase in freight rates. In the downstream group, it names PLX, which recorded a sudden profit from divestment of PGBank.