Q4/2025 earnings outlook: Power sector set to shine?

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) has struck an upbeat tone on Vietnam’s power sector, forecasting a sharp rebound in earnings in Q4/2025, with PetroVietnam Power (POW) seen posting a 520% year-on-year profit surge.

Other sectors with positive prospects include oil & gas, steel, retail, and industrial parks, the Hanoi-based broker said.

In its sector-wide assessment, VCBS said that while most industries are expected to show improvement in Q4/2025, the market will remain highly selective. Investors should therefore focus on individual sector and company-specific stories rather than expecting broad-based growth, it argued.

Banking: steady growth with lingering risks

For the banking sector, VCBS expects credit growth to remain strong and well-directed, with lending focused on priority areas such as manufacturing, infrastructure and consumption to support economic growth.

Asset quality is forecast to gradually improve, while sector profits are likely to be driven by a recovery in net interest margins, a higher contribution from non-interest income, and lower operating costs through digital transformation.

However, the brokerage cautioned that banks continue to face risks, including global macroeconomic volatility, intensifying competition, and increasingly stringent capital and risk management requirements under international standards.

Power sector outlook bright

VCBS maintained a positive view on the power sector, forecasting favorable Q4/2025 earnings supported by modest output growth. Thermal power producers are expected to benefit from higher contracted capacity allocations compared with a year earlier, while hydropower companies should gain from favorable hydrological conditions.

In addition, new projects – particularly in renewable energy – have begun to move forward under a revised legal framework, improving the medium-term outlook for power companies, the broker added.

Retail and consumption: growth with margin pressure

In retail and consumer sectors, VCBS said sales are likely to grow in Q4/2025, supported by peak year-end demand. However, gross margins may come under pressure as companies roll out aggressive promotional campaigns to stimulate consumption.

Looking into 2026, market leaders Mobile World (MWG) and Masan Group (MSN) are expected to maintain double-digit growth, driven by rising consumer incomes and tighter requirements on product traceability and verification, which favor large-scale retailers with extensive distribution networks.

Public investment, industrial parks, and oil & gas

VCBS also expressed a favorable view on public investment, industrial real estate, oil & gas, and steel.

For public investment, disbursement in 2026 is expected to remain high as government spending continues to play a key role in achieving GDP growth targets.

In civil construction, workloads are forecast to increase as project implementation accelerates in the new cycle, while improved receivables collection should ease provisioning pressures.

In the industrial real estate segment, Q4/2025 is expected to see renewed negotiations on medium- and large-scale MoUs with FDI companies. Rubber companies are also expected to benefit from land compensation cash flows and rubber tree liquidation as multiple infrastructure and industrial park projects move into the construction phase.

Meanwhile, the oil & gas sector is forecast to record a clear recovery in Q4 earnings across the value chain, from upstream to downstream. Sector profits are estimated to rise year-on-year, driven by three main factors.

First, several large-scale oil & gas projects are entering substantive implementation stages, notably the Block B-O Mon project, which is expected to generate significant workloads and earnings growth for upstream companies, particularly PTSC (PVS).

Second, drilling prospects remain positive as the PVD VIII rig officially began operations in late August, alongside the stable utilization of four leased rigs, supporting earnings growth at PV Drilling (PVD).

Finally, despite a sharp drop in oil prices compared with a year earlier, demand for midstream and downstream products remains robust, helping sustain revenues and improve margins for companies such as PV Gas (GAS), Petrolimex (PLX), and Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical (BSR).

Steel sector: new growth cycle from 2026

VCBS said 2026 is likely to mark the start of a new growth cycle for Vietnam’s steel industry, led by domestic demand.

While exports face headwinds from trade barriers such as CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) and anti-dumping measures, as well as continued pressure from Chinese supply, government protection policies and a recovery in the property market are expected to provide solid support.

According to VCBS, large-scale producers with integrated value chains and a domestic focus, such as Hoa Phat Group (HPG), are better positioned to outperform compared with companies heavily reliant on trading or exports.

The brokerage expects the Ministry of Industry and Trade to impose anti-dumping duties on wide hot-rolled coil imports in Q1/2026, helping stabilize steel prices, curb competition from low-priced imports, and enable Vietnamese steelmakers to gain domestic market share.

Neutral stance on securities and housing

On a more neutral note, VCBS forecast that earnings in the securities sector may slow after a strong Q3/2025, amid declining liquidity and market gains concentrated in a limited number of stocks.

Mid-sized and smaller brokerages with large equity portfolios are unlikely to see sharp profit growth during VN-Index corrections. Leading firms with a focus on margin lending are expected to deliver steadier earnings, supported by high margin loan balances and investment portfolios aligned with covered warrant issuance.

Similarly, in residential real estate, the broker expects housing supply in 2026 to rise significantly. The sector is likely to benefit from legal reforms in 2025 that unlock resources for developers, alongside improved access to bank credit and bond financing.