Vietnam can lead ASEAN GDP growth in 2025 with 6.5%: research unit AMRO

Vietnam can reach an economic growth of 6.5% in 2025, leading the ASEAN bloc, according to Singapore-based ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

In its January 2025 edition of its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Update, the AMRO noted that Vietnam’s figure was lower than 6.6% given in its October 2024 edition of the report.

It is lower than the Vietnamese government’s target of at least 8% this year. Many international organizations also predicted Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 below the government’s target, such as the World Bank with 6.6%, Singaporean bank UOB with 7%, Oxford Economics with 6.5%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with 6.6%.

The AMRO also noted that other ASEAN nations with high growth in 2025 are the Philippines with 6.3%, Cambodia with 5.8%, and Indonesia with 5.1%. The ASEAN bloc’s average growth can reach 4.8%.

Besides, the AMRO revised up Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, to 3.5% this year, versus 3.3% in the previous edition.

For the region, the AMRO said the ASEAN+3 bloc, with the Plus-3 economies being mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea, can grow 4.2% this year, lower than the projection of 4.3% given in the October 2024 edition.

While firm domestic demand and exports growth are expected to underpin regional growth, escalating trade tensions, including higher tariffs, may dampen external demand, according to the AMRO.

The economic outlook for ASEAN+3, a region contributing to over 40% of global growth, is subject to significant uncertainties. These include escalating trade tensions and shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy, and policy shifts by the new U.S. administration such as higher tariffs and tax cuts.