Vietnam’s GDP growth outpaces regional peers, 6.5% in 2025: Oxford Economics

Vietnam’s GDP growth can reach 6.5% in 2025, continuing to outperform regional peers in the ASEAN-6 group, Oxford Economics said in a Monday report.

Oxford Economics noted that with a full-year growth likely at 6.7% this year, Vietnam has already been the region’s outperformer.

For 2025, Vietnam’s economic growth will be driven by the strong manufacturing sector, with contributions from machinery and textiles.

The country is a hub for assembling, packaging, and testing chips, and the chip-led tailwind will continue next year, though the boost will be weaker than in 2024. Oxford Economics expects some “softness” in the near-term.

The domestic sector outlook remains bright. Solid wage growth, driven by FDI job creation, should support private consumption. With the number of operating enterprises still growing in annual terms, asset accumulation will likely be stronger in 2025, it predicted.

However, FDI inflows may see a temporary slowdown in early 2025 while awaiting possible U.S. tariff announcements against Vietnam. Upside risks are present, with a possible boost from the front-loading of orders driven by U.S. tariff fears, Oxford Economics stressed.

The organization expects credit growth should be better in 2025. Recent changes to credit controls and a better domestic business sector should provide some support to credit growth. However, the drag from real estate will likely last until end-2025, and offloading bad debt will take some time.

Oxford Economics' projection is similar to prediction of many agencies.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) revised up Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.4% in 2024 and 6.6% in 2025, according to the December edition of its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) released last week.

VinaCapital, among the biggest foreign-run asset managers in Vietnam, has forecast the country’s economy to achieve 6.5% growth in both 2024 and 2025.

Standard Chartered expects Vietnam will record strong GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025, with growth easing from 7.5% year-on-year in the first half to 6.1% in the second half.

Vietnam targets a GDP growth of 7% in 2024 and 8% in 2025, in order to prepare for an annual growth beyond 10% in 2026-2030, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said.