Vietnam dong unlikely to depreciate strongly vs. US dollar in near term: broker

Depreciation pressure on the Vietnamese dong versus the U.S. dollar is likely to wane, and the USD/VND rate may not increase as strongly and fast as before, says Vietcombank Securities (VCBS).

After three months of appreciating, the Vietnamese dong (VND) has depreciated circa 4.6% against the greenback since the end of 2023 due to the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and higher forex demand in Vietnam, VCBS said in a macro report on Monday.

The Hanoi-based brokerage firm reckoned that the recent 5% increase in the DXY has been materialized after the U.S. Fed decided to lower its benchmark interest rates by another 25 basis points on November 7. In addition, the USD’s rally before the U.S. presidential election has also been factored in.

“The upward tendency of the DXY may slow down, and the index may hover around the current level,” said VCBS, a unit of state-controlled Vietcombank – the largest forex trader in the country.

Furthermore, forex supply in Vietnam is forecast to become stronger in the coming months thanks to rising inbound remittances and trade surpluses after enterprises have finished importing input materials and increase exports in the year-end season.

“We believe the upward pressure on the USD/VND rate will slow, and the swift and strong strengthening of the USD seen recently is unlikely in the coming time,” said VCBS analysts.

Tran Hoang Son, director of market strategy at VPBank Securities, told local media last month that the recent sharp increase in the USD/VND exchange rate was driven by several factors.

Firstly, the Fed may extend the timeline for interest rate cuts beyond expectations, resulting in a rise in the DXY. Additionally, recent U.S. economic data has shown much greater stability, bolstering the greenback.

Secondly, in Vietnam, October typically sees a surge in demand for hard currency to increase imports for year-end export needs during the New Year and Christmas holidays, he added. Furthermore, USD demand has increased as Vietnam services its foreign debts.

On Tuesday, the Vietnamese central bank increased its reference USD/VND rate by VND4 to VND24,267 a dollar. With a ±5 trading band, commercial banks can quote the greenback at VND23,053-25,480 a dollar.

Vietcombank offered the USD at VND25,116-25,476 for bids and asks, up VND21 from Monday. BIDV, another Big 4 bank, lifted its quote by VND25 to VND25,135-25,480.

On the free market, gold shops offered the greenback at VND25,610-25,720 a dollar for bids and asks, up VND40 and VND50, respectively.

The DXY added 0.16% to 105.71 at the time of writing, the highest since July.