Vietnam real estate inventory on the rise

The real estate inventory in Vietnam is forecast to continue increasing in the coming time amid declining demand, according to property consultancy DKRA Vietnam.

DKRA cited a Ministry of Construction report as showing that in 2022, despite difficulties, the real estate market still recorded some recovery with 150,268 successful apartment or landed-house transactions and 63,405 apartments that will take shape in future offered for sale nationwide.

However, by the end of 2022, the total inventory value of some large real estate developers listed on the stock exchange increased rapidly, reaching nearly VND272,210 billion ($11.48 billion), up 26.4% year-on-year.

For example, Novaland Group’s inventory rose from VND86,870 billion ($3.66 billion) in 2020 to VND134,485 billion ($5.67 billion) by the end of last year. Its inventory mainly came from projects like Aqua City, NovaWorld Phan Thiet and NovaWorld Ho Tram as well as from new projects it acquired.

Vinhomes, a subsidiary of Vietnam’s largest private conglomerate Vingroup, recorded VND65,816 billion ($2.78 billion) of inventory in 2022, up 131% year-on-year.

Its inventory stemmed mainly from such projects as Vinhomes Grand Park, Vinhomes Smart City, Vinhomes Ocean Park, Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 - The Empire, and Vinhomes Ocean Park 3 - The Crown.

Meanwhile, Dat Xanh Group had an inventory value of VND14,238 billion ($600.7 million); Khang Dien VND12,440 billion ($524.8 million); Phat Dat VND12,131 billion ($511.76 million); and DIC Corp VND5,923 billion ($249.9 million).

According to DKRA Vietnam, the real estate inventory in Vietnam has continuously surged since 2019 when it reached VND223,474 billion ($9.43 billion), up 38% year-on-year.

In particular, inventories were mostly seen in the segments of mid- and high-end apartments, tourist apartments and resettlement houses built in locations far from the city centers, with poor technical and social infrastructure.

At the same time, credit tightening, increased inspection of projects/investors, tight licensing management, and high interest rates have put pressure on developers’ decisions to offer products for sale, it added.

Restructuring to survive

According to DKRA, since the middle of 2022, a series of challenges, from the tightened credit to the impact of the bond market and legal barriers, have made most real estate developers unable to implement their projects.

With continuously decreased liquidity, businesses have been forced to streamline their workforce and adjust strategies in order to avoid a crisis.

In the first two months of 2023, the number of real estate enterprises applying to suspend operations soared by more than 57% over the same period last year. Dissolved enterprises rose 20% year-on-year.

Many businesses have had no way other than reducing wages and laying off up to 50% of their employees to maintain operations. Some others have maintained working capacity at about 25-30% as compared to the same period last year.

“In order to survive in the current difficult context, businesses need to restructure their portfolios, gather resources as well as reposition market segments,” the consultancy recommended.

Under the freshly issued Decree 08 on private placements of corporate bonds, enterprises can negotiate with bondholders to pay principal and interest with assets other than cash. This is considered a premise to help create positive signals for the real estate market in the coming time.

The government decree, effective from March 5, 2023, allows extending the term of bonds by up to two years, while issuers cannot do so at all under the old Decree 65.

In case bondholders do not agree to such a change, issuers "must negotiate with the bondholders to ensure the latter's interests".

If negotiations do not reach expected results, issuers must fulfill their obligations to bondholders according to their previously announced bond issuance plan.

For bonds offered domestically, if issuers cannot fully and timely pay principal and interest in Vietnamese dong according to the previously announced plan, they can negotiate with bondholders to pay with other assets.

This has to ensure that the bondholders must approve and the issuers must disclose unusual information and be responsible for the legal status of the assets used for payment.