Vietnam’s macroeconomic indicators 'broadly positive': Dragon Capital

Vietnam's macroeconomic indicators remained broadly positive, with both trade and FDI attraction performing well in the first four months of the year, write Dragon Capital analysts.

Vietnam's macroeconomic indicators remained good, supported in part by the celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of national reunification.

April began with heightened volatility following the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. on multiple global economies. Vietnam was among the most affected, facing tariffs of up to 46% on selected export items.

In response, the domestic stock market declined sharply, falling more than 18% over four consecutive sessions. However, the market gradually stabilized in the second half of the month, trimming the overall decline to 6.1% compared to end-March.

Gold continued to serve as a safe-haven asset, with global prices rising steadily and reaching a record high of $3,509 per ounce on April 22. By month-end, prices had settled at $3,319, up 5.4% from end-March and 25.7% since the start of the year.

Domestic gold prices surged even more, surpassing VND120 million ($4,600) per tael, representing gains of over 20% month-on-month and more than 43% year-to-date. Despite the sharp rally, the impact on the FX and interest rate markets was limited.

The VND/USD exchange rate rose moderately by 1.6% to 25,980, amid persistent concerns about capital flows and investor sentiment. Interbank interest rates eased, falling by approximately 0.5% from March and ranging between 3.5% and 4.5% for terms of 1 to 90 days. Deposit interest rates inched up by 0.1% to 0.4%, reflecting a more cautious stance from banks in the face of global uncertainty.

Domestic macroeconomic indicators remained broadly positive, supported in part by the celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of national reunification.

CPI rose by just 0.1% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year.

Trade continued to perform well, with imports and exports rising by 13% and 18.6% year-on-year to $40.74 billion and $140.34 billion in the four months, respectively. The monthly trade surplus stood at $0.6 billion, lifting the year-to-date surplus to $3.8 billion.

FDI also remained strong. Newly registered and disbursed capital in the first four months of the year reached $13.8 billion and $6.7 billion, up 39.9% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively.

The only notable soft patch came from the PMI, which fell sharply to 45.6, down nearly five points from March, reflecting the short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on business confidence. Nevertheless, Vietnam has remained proactive in engaging with the U.S., and early signs from ongoing negotiations are encouraging.

In April, issuance remained strong at VND42,400 billion ($1.6 billion), despite a 35.0% year-on-year decline. The figure remained well above both in Q1/2025 monthly average of VND36,800 billion ($1.4 billion) and the 2024 monthly average of VND27,500 billion ($1.1 billion). The 10-year tenor made up 72% of issuance.

In the secondary market, rates for 5-to-15-year tenors rose by 7%-17%, continuing the upward trajectory of the yield curve, which remained within a narrow range of 2.23% to 3.33% across 1-to-15-year maturities.

Total outright transaction volume reached VND169,400 ($6.5 billion), averaging VND8,500 billion ($328 million) per day, down 33.0% month-on-month. REPO transactions totalled VND79,900 billion ($3.1 billion), or approximately VND3,900 ($150 million) per day, a 25.0% month-on-month decrease.

Foreign investors recorded a net sell of VND523 billion ($20 million), reducing their year-to-date net buying position to VND1,800 ($695 million).

Despite lower trading volumes, liquidity in the banking system remained healthy.