WB retains Vietnam’s economic growth at 5.5% in 2024, 6% in 2025

Vietnam’s GDP growth can accelerate from 5.5% in 2024 to 6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, the World Bank said in its “Global Economic Prospects” report released on Tuesday.

The figures for 2024 and 2025 are unchanged from the January edition, according to the bank. For 2026, the tally is the highest in the East Asia and Pacific region, followed by Cambodia with 6.4%, Mongolia with 6.3%, and the Philippines with 5.9%.

Previewing the region in 2024, the WB said regional growth is projected to decline to 4.8% this year, as a slowdown in China offsets faster growth in several other large economies.

Excluding China, the region’s growth will be supported by an upswing in global goods trade that will benefit exports and industrial activity, offsetting the effects of softening growth in China, the bank noted.

“Accelerations of activity are expected to be strongest in some of the most export-orientated economies, including Thailand and Vietnam,” it emphasized.

Overall, the WB said the global economy is expected to stabilize for the first time in three years in 2024 - but at a level that is weak by recent historical standards.

Global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6% in 2024 before edging up to an average of 2.7% in 2025-2026. “That is well below the 3.1% average in the decade before Covid-19,” according to the bank.

Developing economies are projected to grow 4% on average over 2024-2025, slightly slower than in 2023, the bank added.

Vietnam recorded GDP growth of 5.66% in the first quarter of 2024, the highest figure for the same period since 2020, the General Statistics Office reported in March.

The pace was higher than 3.21% posted in Q1/2020, 4.85% in Q1/2021, 5.12% in Q1/2022, and 3.41% in Q1/2023, it added.

In its “World economic situation and prospects as of mid-2024” released in May, the United Nations (UN) retained its projection of Vietnam’s economic growth at 6% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

In the April 2024 edition of its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the country's economic expansion at 5.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

In May, the Hanoi-based Vietnam Institute for Economics and Policy Research (VEPR) said Vietnam’s economy is likely to expand 5.5-6% this year, 0.5 percentage points lower than the government’s target.