Vietnam growth upbeat amid slowing Asia: IMF

By Tuong Thuy
Wed, September 7, 2022 | 3:08 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s upbeat growth outlook is bucking the slowing trend elsewhere in Asia, with relatively subdued inflation as an exception to the regional rule, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

Logo of IMF. Photo courtesy of the institution.

Logo of IMF. Photo courtesy of the institution.

The IMF recently raised its Vietnam growth forecast to 7% this year, lifting it by a full percentage point from three months earlier as the only significant upward revision among major Asian economies.

Growth estimates for Asia were lowered to 4.2% for this year in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook Update.

Vietnam’s inflation pressure has been mostly limited to some goods like fuels and related services like transport. In the January-August period, on average, Vietnam's consumer price index climbed up 2.58% year-on-year, while the central bank’s target for this year is 4%.

But Vietnam’s recovery faces headwinds from global growth decelerating from 6.1% last year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook lowered estimates to 3.2% this year amid the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the slowdown in China and major advanced economies.

"Such a slowdown implies reduced demand for Vietnam’s exports, especially from key trade partners like the U.S., China, and the European Union," read the new report, named Vietnam Bucks Asia's Weakening Growth Trend.

In addition, financial conditions are tightening as interest rates in the U.S. and other advanced economies rise to curb inflation. That in turn increases financing costs and can lead to capital outflows, as seen in many emerging markets in the region.

Greater uncertainty about global trade and financial markets could also weigh on the recovery, especially if some industries lose access to needed intermediate goods because of further supply-chain disruptions.

"That could curtail foreign investment in Vietnam, slowing production and technological growth. Together, these factors mean policymakers must be agile and make timely changes," it noted.

The report suggested three measures for the Southeast Asian country.

First, fiscal policy should take the lead in aiding recovery, yet flexibly adjusted to evolving economic conditions. Second, the central bank should focus on rising inflationary risks, and communicate that it’s ready to act as needed and remains committed to meeting its inflation target.

Third, authorities should continue addressing bad loans in the banking system and closely monitor for potential risks in real estate markets to safeguard financial stability.

"Even after decades of impressive gains, Vietnam still faces several challenges, and broad economic reforms will be needed for it to achieve its developmental goals," the IMF noted.

On Tuesday, Moody's raised Vietnam's rating from Ba3 to Ba2, meaning the outlook changed from positive to stable.

The upgrade reflects the country’s growing economic strengths relative to its peers and greater resilience to external macroeconomic shocks that are indicative of improved policy effectiveness, the credit rating agency said.

Moody’s expects the outlook would continue as the economy benefits from supply chain reconfiguration, export diversification and continued inbound investment in manufacturing.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vietnam needs large, specialized logistics centers to compete better: official

Vietnam needs large, specialized logistics centers to compete better: official

Vietnam needs large-scale, specialized logistics centers that will enable greater competitiveness of local economies and enterprises, says Tran Thanh Hai, deputy head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade's agency of foreign trade.

Economy - Sun, November 3, 2024 | 11:00 am GMT+7

Vietnam manufacturing sector sees 35% increase in Q3 job orders: Adecco

Vietnam manufacturing sector sees 35% increase in Q3 job orders: Adecco

Vietnam’s manufacturing and sourcing sectors saw a substantial 35% year-on-year increase and a 52% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3/2024 job orders, global workforce solutions provider Adecco said in a reseach report released Thursday.

Economy - Sun, November 3, 2024 | 9:00 am GMT+7

Construction majors to continue capitalizing on public investment projects

Construction majors to continue capitalizing on public investment projects

Vietnamese construction giants are expected to continue capitalizing on public investment projects for the remainder of this year after delivering strong performances in the third quarter, analysts say.

Companies - Sun, November 3, 2024 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Former Government Office chairman receives $7,900 bribe from property project

Former Government Office chairman receives $7,900 bribe from property project

Mai Tien Dung, former Minister-Government Office Chairman, received a bribe worth VND200 million ($7,900) from Nguyen Cao Tri, owner of the Dai Ninh eco-resort and urban area project in Lam Dong province.

Society - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 9:13 pm GMT+7

Thai food giant CP enters public-private partnership to promote food system transformation

Thai food giant CP enters public-private partnership to promote food system transformation

Thai-invested C.P. Vietnam Livestock JSC and the Partnership for Sustainable Agriculture Vietnam (PSAV) signed a memorandum of understanding Friday on working together to advance sustainable agriculture in the country.

Companies - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 7:16 pm GMT+7

Central Vietnam province Quang Ngai to begin work on new VSIP industrial park next year

Central Vietnam province Quang Ngai to begin work on new VSIP industrial park next year

Vietnam’s central province of Quang Ngai will work with the investor to have construction of VSIP II Quang Ngai, a facility based on the Vietnam-Singapore Industrial Park (VSIP) model, begin in August 2025.

Industrial real estate - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 3:47 pm GMT+7

Vietnam likely to grow 6.5% in 2024-2025: VinaCapital

Vietnam likely to grow 6.5% in 2024-2025: VinaCapital

VinaCapital, among the biggest foreign-run asset managers in Vietnam, has forecast the country’s economy to achieve 6.5% growth in both 2024 and 2025, with the composition of the expansion to change to more domestically driven factors next year.

Economy - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 2:00 pm GMT+7

Major Vietnamese developer Novaland appoints new CEO

Major Vietnamese developer Novaland appoints new CEO

Duong Van Bac, who joined Novaland as chief financial officer in August 2023, has been appointed general director, starting Friday.

Companies - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 10:24 am GMT+7

Vietnamese conglomerate Bamboo Capital posts 36-fold profit growth in Q3

Vietnamese conglomerate Bamboo Capital posts 36-fold profit growth in Q3

Ho Chi Minh City-based Bamboo Capital Group recorded an after-tax profit of VND331.2 billion ($13.1 million) in the third quarter of 2024, an astounding 36-fold expansion year-on-year.

Southeast Asia - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 9:41 am GMT+7

ThaiBev to bag $54 mln from Sabeco’s upcoming dividend payout

ThaiBev to bag $54 mln from Sabeco’s upcoming dividend payout

Vietnam Beverage, wholly owned by Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) will rake in VND1,374 billion ($54.26 million) worth of dividend from Ho Chi Minh City-based top brewer Sabeco.

Companies - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 9:13 am GMT+7

Steel heavyweight Hoa Phat pours over $2 bln into central Vietnam complex

Steel heavyweight Hoa Phat pours over $2 bln into central Vietnam complex

Leading Vietnamese steelmaker Hoa Phat had invested more than VND52.5 trillion ($2.08 billion) in its Dung Quat Iron and Steel Integrated Complex (Dung Quat 2) in the central province of Quang Ngai as of Q3/2024.

Industries - Sat, November 2, 2024 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Vietnam becomes Australia’s fastest-growing inbound market

Vietnam becomes Australia’s fastest-growing inbound market

The number of Vietnamese tourists to Australia has grown significantly after the Covid-19 pandemic, with nearly 178,000 reported in the 12 months to August 2024, according to a Friday press release by the Australian Minister for Trade and Tourism’s Office.

Southeast Asia - Fri, November 1, 2024 | 10:02 pm GMT+7

Study finds shift in Thai consumers’ spending patterns

Study finds shift in Thai consumers’ spending patterns

Consumers in Thailand are shifting their spending focus to experiences and investments, according to the latest ASEAN Consumer Sentiment Study (ACSS) by United Overseas Bank (UOB).

Southeast Asia - Fri, November 1, 2024 | 10:00 pm GMT+7

Energy security, digitalization key to Indonesia's economic growth

Energy security, digitalization key to Indonesia's economic growth

The Indonesian government is prioritizing long-term economic growth through energy security, digitalization, and natural resource industrialization, according to Deputy Minister of Finance Thomas Djiwandono.

Southeast Asia - Fri, November 1, 2024 | 9:58 pm GMT+7

Vietnam PM's Middle East tour creates breakthroughs in economic, trade, investment cooperation: FM

Vietnam PM's Middle East tour creates breakthroughs in economic, trade, investment cooperation: FM

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s freshly ended six-day trip to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has produced important outcomes, demonstrating the growing relations between Vietnam and the three Middle-East countries, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son told the Vietnam News Agency.

Politics - Fri, November 1, 2024 | 9:25 pm GMT+7

Vietnam, Qatar look to tap potential for energy, oil & gas collaboration

Vietnam, Qatar look to tap potential for energy, oil & gas collaboration

Vietnam and Qatar have recognized the significant potential for further collaboration in multiple sectors such as energy, oil and gas, especially LNG, agriculture, Halal industry, and banking.

Politics - Fri, November 1, 2024 | 9:02 pm GMT+7