Vietnam's new order growth in Dec slows to three-month low: S&P

The final month of 2024 saw a loss of momentum in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector, as growth of production and new orders slowed, while firms scaled back employment and inventories, according to S&P Global.

The market intelligence provider's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Vietnam dipped below the 50.0 no-change mark for the first time in three months during December, posting 49.8 from 50.8 in November.

The reading signalled a fractional deterioration in overall business conditions at the end of the year. "Business confidence dropped to a 19-month low," S&P Global wrote in a report released on Thursday.

The worsening in the health of the manufacturing sector was recorded inspite of increases in output and new orders, as firms scaled back their employment and stocks of purchases.

Although both output and new orders increased in December, rates of expansion were only slight and the weakest in the respective three-month growth sequences. Some firms signalled demand improvements, while others reported that market conditions had softened.

While total new business continued to rise, new export orders decreased for the second month running and at a solid pace.

S&P Global notes that concerns about global market instability and uncertainty caused a drop in confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook for production. Sentiment fell markedly in December and was the lowest since May 2023.

Hopes for increases in new orders, an improvement in economic conditions and the resolution of some of the conflicts around the world meant that firms were on balance optimistic that output will expand, however, it says.

Expected rises in output in the coming months led to a renewed increase in purchasing activity, with the rate of expansion the fastest in four months. Firms remained reluctant to hold excess inventories, however, and reduced stocks of purchases accordingly.

Stocks of finished goods were also down. Manufacturers reduced employment for the third successive month at the end of the year amid muted growth of new orders.

Although modest, the pace of job cuts was the sharpest since August. The continued scaling back of employment at a time when new orders were expanding (albeit slightly), meant that backlogs of work accumulated again in December, extending the current sequence of rising outstanding business to seven months.

Inflationary pressures picked up, with both input costs and output prices rising at the fastest rates since July.

Material shortages and exchange rate fluctuations contributed to higher input costs, with oil and metals among the items mentioned as being up in price.

In turn, companies increased their output prices for the eighth month in a row, and at a solid pace that was the fastest since July. The latest rise was also stronger than the series average.

Finally, suppliers' delivery times lengthened for the fourth month running, with firms often noting slow traffic conditions. The lengthening of lead times was only modest, however, and the least pronounced in the current period of deteriorating vendor performance, S&P adds.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented: "It was a subdued end to the year for the Vietnamese manufacturing sector as growth of output and new orders slowed. Global market uncertainty also acted to depress confidence, which fell to the lowest in more thana year-and-a-half.

"This may in part reflect the uncertain picture with regards to plans by the incoming US administration around tariffs. Further announcements on this in the new year will help to provide clarity on anypotential impacts on Vietnamese manufacturers."

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s January-November index of industrial production (IIP) grew 8.4% year-on-year, extending the recovery of the sector after an 8.3% growth in January-October.

On monthly basis, the IIP in November grew 2.3% from October and 8.9% from November 2023.

The 11-month figure outpaced the growth of 3% in 2020, 4.2% in 2021, 0.9% in 2023, and was the same as 8.4% in 2022.

The GSO elaborated the growth was driven by the manufacturing-processing sector going up 9.7%, electricity production and distribution up 10.2%, and water supply and waste-wastewater treatment up 9.6%.

The GSO's December and 12-month statistics are yet to be released.